I've noticed lately that some of my friends and family are getting a little down about the election (Can we call it that? How many months until November?), and I can't blame them, it's like watching a train wreck. Hillary is cleared of any wrong doing about using a private email server, but the director of the FBI investigation calls her "extremely careless," while on the other side of the isle Trump compliments Gaddafi and Tweets an anti-Semitic picture of Hillary Clinton (David Duke ends up endorsing the Tweet, everyone else who isn't affiliated with the KKK says its anti-Semitic...except of course, for Donald Trump). So I understand looking at those things and thinking "shit," but I don't understand the fear that Trump will win. While I'll say it is possible for him to win—this would require Hillary to make a mistake so huge I can't even conjecture one that would be plausible—it is extremely unlikely. I do, however believe I understand why people are starting to believe he will win, and I believe that reason is simple. He's everywhere. You can't turn the television on for an hour of news without him being mentioned. Some idiotic statement he's made will undoubtedly be one of the top 5 headlines on any news site, and it's even likely one of his Tweets will be the top story. It sounds like a bizarre satire of the American political system, but it's in fact reality. Now, putting aside the fact that this is insane, that we've allowed a sociopath to take over the airwaves, the fact still remains that he can't win the presidency. Here's why:
- Demographics: He doesn't have them. It's no exaggeration to say Donald Trump is the candidate white supremacists have been waiting for. He's the guy who has made being racists vogue again. So, generally speaking, if you're a minority (and there's a 37% chance that you are) you're not going to vote for this guy, if you're a woman (and there's a 47% chance that you are) you're not going to vote for this guy, or if you're a person who cares about either of those above mentioned demographics you're not going to vote for this guy.
- The race hasn't even started yet: Hillary hasn't even begun to hammer at this guy. She's thrown light punches, but as November gets closer those punches will get harder. He'll play dirty of course, it's what he does, but insults will only carry so much weight in the general election, especially when there's a mountain of bullshit that will be used against him.
- He's the weakest candidate in modern history: Trump won a major party nomination off of one demographic for a political party that is primarily made of that demographic (white uneducated males). His campaign has no infrastructure, and no cash. Trump has no policies. Other than "I'm building a wall" he has no concrete proposals, everything changes depending on the crowd and his mood. And if that weren't enough, he's also one of the most disliked candidates in history.
- The Republican Party is 26% of the electorate: Which means he needs to win over independents to win, the 42% of Americans who decide elections. Despite the name, independents are formed of Democratic and Republican leaning voters. In 2008 14% of these voters voted Democrat who said they were Democratic leaning, while 14% voted Republican who said they were Republican leaning. Only 12% were truly independent, who claimed to have no leaning prior to the election. So a Trump victory comes down to winning 7% of a diverse voting block. He can't do it. He doesn't have the numbers on his side.
So, that's my thought on the matter. Trump will not win the presidency, but that won't stop him from Tweeting and saying whatever garbage happens to pop into his "very good brain" between now and November. So, in the meantime, make sure your registered to vote, and never give up hope on good winning out.